Let's think about bird flu, or more properly "avian flu", A(H5N1) for a moment. This disease affects birds, and can spread to humans. WHO noted 122 reported cases in humans up to november 1, 2005. 62 led to death. That gives a scary (although decreasing) 50 % mortality rate.
The total number of cases is still relatively small however, in part due to very aggressive culling of poultry in east Asia to prevent the disease from spreading. 100 million birds were slaughtered after the first outbreak in december 2003.
The first infections in humans were reported in january 2004. WHO has marked one early case in Thailand as a possible human-to-human transmission incident. The virus can replicate in pigs, indicating an increase in virulency from the previous outbreak in 1997.
Researchers were able to show in february that the global outbreak of "spanish flu" in 1918 was probably due to a bird flu-like virus mutating to allow for human-to-human infection. And that pandemic caused 25 million deaths. (About 12,5 million in India.)
So: The worst case scenario is that the current strain of bird flu mutates, spreads among humans globally in a couple of weeks and kills... well, estimates differ. 2 to 8 million is a conservative figure. A pandemic would supposedly hurt the global economy, but it's hard to find any numbers on that. It could kill many more, but predictions are unreliable.
So, doomsday? Sadly, no. Worth attention, planning, research? Sure. But...
4500 people where killed or severely injured in accidents with vehicles in Sweden last year according to Statistics Sweden, and may I point out that road safety in Sweden is a Big Thing. The figure globally is 1,2 million. That's 3200 deaths every single day. 1600 deaths before you've even eaten your lunch.
Small arms kill 500 000 every year, 32 000 in the US notably.
So if the aim is to rapidly prevent something that kills humans it would seem smarter to look for other things than flu. Avian flu is a possible big killer, and viral pandemics are Bad and Scary things, but there's no shortage of other threats to deal with. And they don't get the attention they deserve, even though you're more likely to get run over on your way to work than to catch a deadly disease from dark Vietnam.
Bird flu, bird flu, bird flu. Genèva is host to a global summit on the subject, beginning today.
It would just be nice to see this kind of interest for the old, steady, boring, rising threats to human safety. Just out of a hat: nuclear proliferation, genocide, war for oil, a global environment on the brink of catastrophic failure, AIDS, poverty and drugs.
Good luck on that. Run the numbers before stocking up on vaccine.
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